Nov 2
a bule perspective: the president's no-so-quick and completely inadequate response
Wow! Another crazy day. More frenzied developments. More confusion, more conjecture, more... of the same? Here's my take on what has happened over the past couple of days.
Last week the Police did the unthinkable and arrested KPK commissioners Bibit and Chandra
Why? This seems like the most stupid thing the Police could do, right? Before I answer that, let's keep in mind that this whole case is being driven by one or two very high-ranking people. They are basically using the Police force to serve their own nefarious ends. They don't care about the impact this has on the Police's credibility. They don't care about the low-ranking Police officers who are abused by the public as a result.
So why did the Police decide to do this now? My guess is that the President told them to. On Wednesday last week, the Constitutional Court ordered that the President's PERPPU -- a Presidential order in lieu of law -- is faulty. The President does not have the authority to dismiss Bibit and Chandra until they are tried and convicted. This is extremely embarrassing for the President.
This makes things very complex for the President, because now he has an interest in the outcome of the Police prosecution. If the Police get their conviction, then his PERPPU is safe. The President can fire the commissioners. If the Police fail, then the President's enemies --- of which there are many --- will launch an attack like nothing he has seen before. The President could be impeached. This would be very embarrassing for the President because we would all learn about the full extent of his involvement. My guess is that the President does not have clean hands. He must be worried...
What about this tape-recording?
I think this is the other reason the Police arrested Bibit and Chandra. They need to get the trial started before the Bibit and Chandra launch their counter-attack. The tape-recording is the corner-stone of Bibit and Chandra's counter-attack. It supposedly proves that very high-ranking officials at the Attorney-General's Office and the Police plotted the downfall of Bibit and Chandra, by fabricating evidence of bribes.
It looks like this counter-attack has been very well planned. Today the Constitutional Court will listen to the tape-recording. My guess is that the KPK has asked the Constitutional Court to issue an order saying that the KPK acted within its authority by wire-tapping the conversations. This is a very clever strategy, because one of the people recorded, the very evil-looking Anggodo Widjojo, has subsequently filed a complaint with the Police. His complaint? The KPK abused their authority by recording his conversations without authority.
The support of the Constitutional Court is very important, because when it comes to the KPK crisis, it has higher authority than the Police and the President.
A nice side-effect is that neither the Police nor the President can get their hands on the tape-recording until the Constitutional Court has finished with it, by which time it will be too late.
But hasn't the President stepped in to help the KPK?
In a word, no. Yesterday he set up a special tribunal that will look at what evidence the Police have against Bibit and Chandra. But it's not clear what this actually means. The special tribunal does not have any authority over the Police or the Attorney-General's Office. It has the authority to make recommendations. But I am not sure what it could possibly recommend that we don't already know.
Ironically, he claims he acted swiftly by appointing the special tribunal. Why is this ironic? Because I wouldn't be surprised if he is ultimately responsible for the arrest -- however indirect his involvement might be.
What will happen next?
That is a good question. My guess is that the Police charges against Bibit and Chandra will become secondary and superseded by Bibit and Chandra's counter-attack in the
Constitutional Court:
- Bibit and Chandra --- and possibly the KPK --- will ask the Constitutional Court to decide whether they have "abused their authority" by issuing travel bans.
- The Constitutional Court will decide that they have not "abused their authority" --- this is almost a given.
- Bibit and Chandra will ask the Constitutional Court to determine whether the Police have abused their authority.
- My guess is that the Constitutional Court will decide "yes".
- Heads will roll at the Attorney-General's Office, the Police chief will be forced to resign and several high-ranking Police and government officials will be charged with corruption.
- The DPR will try to impeach the President.
That's my prediction --- or is it a wish?
You can find the Facebook page supporting the KPK commissioners here. If you would like to read more about this, you should have a look at Rob Baiton's blog. Here is a link to his "KPK" posts. Also check out Tree's blog, for a very detailed look at specific issues. You might also be interested in the following posts:
- The KPK, news media and why I still love Indonesia -- which has a very basic explanation of the KPK crisis
- How Indonesians outgrew their President -- which looks at the wire-tapping issue
- The Constitutional Court tells the President he is wrong -- which explains the PERPPU issue
- The President misreads public sentiment, comes across as a pansy -- which explains the President's reaction to the wire-tapping issue
- The President considers KPK options (and his own political survival) -- which explains who the President is consulting with
Comments (4)
Nov 02, 2009
bambang said...
in a previous post (http://spruiked.posterous.com/jakarta-post-wakes-up-notices-kpk-crisis) you thought the president was clear. have you changed your mind?
Nov 02, 2009
Brett McGuire said...
Aha! You caught me out! You see, I change my mind quicker than Megawati! I think he has clean-ish hands. If he has done anything wrong, it is for personal reasons, i.e. the PERPPU issue. He needs the PERPPU to be legitimate because he will be attacked if it is not. I am sure that the DPR will try to impeach him.
I think his hands are only dirty if he told the Police to hurry up and prosecute. If he did that, then he has used his authority inappropriately and to serve his own political purpose. That's wrong -- and dirty.
Of course, I am guessing. I have no idea what is really going on.
If I am right, then the main problem is that he has really bad advisers. He needs a new suite of advisers. People that are more in tune with Indonesia today (Indonesians are far more politically astute than he realises, I think), and perhaps more independent. Some of these Presidential cronies have been around since the New Order. That worked five years ago, but today I think it is more important to be in tune with the electorate and to have really important people (like the head of the Constitutional Court) on your side.
You know the good thing about all this? It shows that Indonesia's constitutional machinery works. Ten years ago, who would have thought that today we would be debating constitutional issues, impeachment, executive power, etc. These are very complex issues that rarely come up. This is Watergate. Seriously. Nothing this exciting ever happens in New Zealand!
Nov 03, 2009
Rob said...
Brett...I have enjoyed reading your posts on the KPK (and all the others as well :D). The beauty of the posts is that they are fluid and you meld in the "facts" as they become available. So, it is not so much a matter of changing one's mind, but being willing to accept that as new information reaches the surface having the flexibility to incorporate that into the complex equation that this case is.
Thanks for the plug.Much appreciated.
I agree with you in that I think this case will potentially show Indonesians and the world that the "constitutional machinery" is not only sufficient in legislation terms but is enforceable and works. Alternatively, it will show how rotten at the core the "reformasi" process has been.
I am an eternal optimist so I am definitely leaning towards the former rather than the latter. If nothing else this unsavoury process has highlighted that there has been institutional reform, but not all are ready to get on board with that reform. Ultimately, this is a start or a first step in the race to democratic reform, but there is still much of the race to be run.
Nov 03, 2009
Brett McGuire said...
Thanks for the FANTASTIC compliment!
